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Critical Thinking: Statistical Reasoning and Intuitive Judgment Varda Liberman, Amos Tversky ebook

* Page: 320
* Format: pdf / epub / kindle
* ISBN: 9780231187688
* Publisher: Columbia University Press

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Overview
Life is fundamentally uncertain. We do not know whether it will rain, whether the market will go up or down, whether our unhealthy eating choices will have serious consequences, or whether terrorists will strike our city. To make matters worse, we also lack a tried and true procedure for evaluating the likelihood of such events. Yet we are required to make decisions great and small that depend on these events. In the absence of certainty or an objective procedure for estimating probabilities,...